Recently an anonymous commenter used the word 'apophenia', and I had to look it up to learn its meaning. Thank you for that anon, I am always pleased to learn a new word and 'apophenia' is an excellent example.
'Apophenia' describes the phenomenon of the perception of patterns, meanings, or connections where none exists. It’s like looking at a Rorschach ink blot and telling the analyst what you see.
In the world of statistical analysis, apophenia is known as a "Type 1 error". This is often called the “false positive” and happens when data is interpreted as confirming a hypothesis when in fact it does not. It’s effectively when you see a pattern where there isn’t one.
The human brain constantly searches for patterns; it's a learned behaviour which developed in response to danger. Patterns are recognised as established order, and breaks in patterns suggest danger. So although we say we seek patterns what we really do is watch out for breaks in established patterns but the result is the same - we monitor patterns constantly.
We Besslerites are convinced that Johann was genuine, despite what we have been taught and we therefore seek to confirm our belief by reproducing his wheel, not just for that reason but for the benefit of mankind, as we see it. But, as someone put it recently, when you think you might have solved the problem, "the chances are that you are having an apophenic experience and you need to remember to clean your cognitive glasses in a little reality solution." This sounds rather depressing but actually it isn't. Looking for the solution involves much trial and error and therefore apophenia is a necessary part of the process.
We all have our pet theories and each is different to the rest, and we have no way of knowing, so far, if any of them are right, but we seek to prove them by building or simulating the finished wheel, according to whatever hypothesis we are committed to.
Searching for the solution to Bessler's wheel is a bit like connecting the dots to make a recognisable picture. Sometimes the dots don'tproduce the picture we want. But have faith, according to Karl Brugger, "The propensity to see connections between seemingly unrelated objects or ideas most closely links psychosis to creativity ... apophenia and creativity may even be seen as two sides of the same coin." So be creative and let the reality check take care of itself and if the result is attributable to apophenia keep looking for that break in the pattern.
JC
10a2c5d26e15f6g7h10ik12l3m6n14o14r5s17tu6v5w4y4-3,’.
TG,
ReplyDeleteI have relied on builds in the past to prove or disprove my ideas. To speed up my work (or should I say eliminate any possibilities in the early stages of development), I would like to try a SIM program. I have an old idea from my 2SO days I need to get out of my head. Springs are employed to control the movement of shifting / leveraged weights. What ever program I use has to support the use of springs and swinging or leveraged weights. I am not familiar with any so can you give me a recommendation. Thanks in advance.
Rick
You'll find my answer at the end of the comments to the last blog entry.
DeleteExcuse me but i am actually building the device and i should have it working by tomorrow .
ReplyDeleteI am right , Trevor and Chris are wrong .
The race is on guys!..Lets see who wins.
ReplyDeleteMy advice is to be WARY of ANYONE who starts to accuse you of being "apophenic". In fact, IGNORE them, TOTALLY!
ReplyDeleteWhat they are REALLY saying is that they think that you are DELUSIONAL and "seeing things" that aren't actually there. That's just one small notch away from saying that you are hallucinating and are, therefore, PSYCHOTIC or INSANE! One must wonder why THEY feel the "need" to pretend to be the reincarnations of Dr. Freud and slap a psychological diagnostic label on YOUR research efforts.
Generally, I suspect that most of these self-appointed Freuds are merely "no track" skeptics who are actually ENVIOUS of anyone who displays the courage and intellectual strength necessary to confront a major challenge such as the search for PM and, in particular, for THE solution to the Bessler wheel mystery. Demeaning us with a pschological diagnosis is their pathetic way of trying to neutralize our efforts and thereby eliminate us as a source of the envy that makes THEM feel threatened!
So, pay them no mind and trust your "gut" feelings. My gut, eyes, and mind tell me that there ARE DOZENS of REAL clues in the two DT portraits and following them HAS, so far, lead me 99.9% of the way to the end of the "right track" where THE solution to the Bessler wheel mystery lies waiting for me.
The results I've gotten so far are NOT the product of some psychological abberation. WHEN I or someone else finally does get there, you will notice that all of the self-appointed Freuds out there will suddenly grow silent. THEN, it will be THEY who have to face the FACT that THEY were FOS with their "diagnoses"!
TG,..I don't need the clues anymore.I can tell you in hindsight exactly which of his verbal clues are relevant and which are not.
ReplyDeleteFrom these you can work out exactly how the wheel works.
Thanks, Trevor, but a while ago I went through MT and extracted the few notational clues that I thought were relevant. There are already several lists of relevant text clues from both AP and DT online. What is has not been published so far and is not yet online are the 98% of the relevant clues in the two DT portraits. This is probably the MAJOR reason that the Bessler wheel mystery remains unsolved after 300 years. Hopefully, this situation will soon be changing!
DeleteTrevor, please list 5 that are not relevant. Thanks: justsomeone
ReplyDeleteWow TG, you are easily stirred! I think we are all familiar with our sceptical friends and their reactions to our claims about Bessler so there's no need to shout in capitals beware! I was simply reflecting on the meaning of apophenia.
ReplyDeleteJC
Sorry if I sounded like I was shouting, John. That was not my intention. I was merely trying to emphasize certain key words for maximum emotional impact.
DeleteIt's difficult enough to pursue our "passion" while having to endure the negative pessimistic "noise" of the "no track" skeptics whose arguements against the possibility of PM are based upon flawed logic (as Bessler's success proved!), but it's even more annoying when they suddenly pretend to be psychologists who are trying to "diagnose" what particular mental abberations we are suffering from! I think its important to "turn the tables" on these characters whenever possible and start to psychoanalyze THEIR motives which is just what I did in that comment above.
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DeleteWhat's your excuse for failure Chris?
DeleteYou're a psycholgist now?
You think I want to join you on your side of the fence? Thanks but no thanks.
FTW I looked it up - none of the meanings are relevant. I've no idea what you are talking about.
JC
John, I think "FTW" is supposed to mean "Fu*k The World" which is Chris' way of saying that we should ignore the "no track" skeptics out there who only arrive here to either deride our efforts or call our mental faculties into question.
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ReplyDeleteLook here guys,..Rather not look down with disdain on those who are trying until you've come with a working wheel to prove your theory.
ReplyDeleteI'm out of here as of tonight.
ReplyDeleteThanks for all your imput, but I don't have to take criticism from the likes of Chris Wilson and technoguy so good bye to all and thanks.
JC
Just to clairify one point, John. I was NOT in anyway trying to criticize YOU. I was annoyed at that "no track" Anon who brought up the issue of "apophenia" in a past blog entry's comments. I would have thought that you would have been as offended by his innuendo as I, but, apparently not. Perhaps you have a thicker skin that I.
DeleteKLOINK..., you are kidding. Right?
ReplyDeleteThis is YOUR blog; Ban them, ignore them, humiliate them, but don't abandon the rest of us.
Please..?
My apologies Herbert, ignore me, I'm not going anywhere. Sometimes people just get me so mad with their pompous self-opiniated responses. They simply can't see their own faults because they're so busy picking holes in everyone else. I've calmed down now and I shall treat them with the same disdain they treat me. Thank you for your concern.
ReplyDeleteJC
Whew!!
ReplyDeleteChris wrote:
ReplyDelete"Basically John I am agreeing with TG. The meaning behind your words clearly reflects ( to me anyway ) a certain negative aspect of how you feel about yourself and your fellow Besslerites ( or whatever you said above )."
I'm always pleased when someone agrees with me, but my first comment here was NOT intended to suggest in ANY way that John was the one who was offensively diagnosing us mobilists as suffering from "apophenia". My annoyance was directed at a previous blog entry's Anon commentor that brought up the subject, NOT at John!
Keep up your spirits, John. It is a irrefutable truth that you have produced over many years of painstaking research a vast body of knowledge, documentation and insight about this remarkable man Bessler, and nobody (not even the Men in Black, lol) can take that away from you. You, Sir, have every reason to be proud of your accomplishments and to keep your chin up and your mind clear from noisy negativists.
ReplyDeleteRemember, there will be always be critics, even in the face of a working invention - as happened to Bessler and countless other inventors. They'll simply change tactics from "it can't be done" to "fraud" or ad hominem attacks. Their modus operandi is as simple as that, and as simplistic as their own lack of proof.
You are far more respected and appreciated than you think, even when sometimes it may seem that only a handful are listening. I am quite sure there a many lurkers. And, besides, often critics are good - they keep us sharp and sometimes have useful ideas or input.
Keep up the good work!
AGREED! If it was not for JC's monumental efforts in gathering as much available information about Bessler and his wheels as he did and making them available in English for us, then NONE of us would be here right now and, despite the huge number of clues, in the DT portraits (which I did not even see before I learned about JC's efforts!), I would not be 99.9% of the way to the end of the "right track" that I am currently on. We ALL owe him a LOT!
DeleteTHANKS, JOHN!
Thank you for your kind words both, and please accepot my apologies for throwing a hissy fit! TG you are always welcome here and even though I have complaind about your comments you have always been restrained and polite in your responses.
DeleteJC
John this blog is very important and vital .
ReplyDeleteDon't let them destroy your blog.
To Chris! be polite,respectful,friendly,candid,obey etiquette.This is elementary education.
If those points are foreign and fathomless to you,i would be more than happy teach you a lesson.
Thanks to you too, Vincent, and to all those who enjoy reading my blog.
DeleteJC
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DeleteTrevor, how about 1 or 2 verbal clues that you think are not important. Thanks Justsomeone
ReplyDeleteI don't understand why you would wan't the unimportant clues,surely you would want the relevant clues to show the right direction.
DeleteFirstly,none of the logos or graphic clues will reveal anything remotely like the principle of how the wheel should work.
DeleteMr. Anonymous wrote "...how about 1 or 2 verbal clues that you think are not important".
DeleteAlthough this question was not directed to me, I CAN answer it. ANY text clues in MT that refer to "stork's bill" mechanisms are irrelevant.
What's THE most important clue in MT? It's the notation to MT 10:
"The principle is good, but the figure is not yet complete until I delineate it much differently at the appropriate place and indicate the correct handle-construction."
Why it is the most important clue has to do with the "principle" of the design that Bessler refers to as being "good". Now all you have to do is ask yourself exactly what that principle is and WHY it is so "good".
Thank you Chris. I can see from your response that you are as offended by my comments as I was by yours. However I look forward to our future discussion over a working wheel. Good luck.
ReplyDeleteJC
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ReplyDeleteYou might be right Chris, we'll just have to wait and see.
DeleteJC
@ JC
ReplyDeleteI think you do a very good job of consistently coming up with ideas and themes to keep your blogg alive and interesting. That’s not any easy thing to do!
Your apophenia versus creativity theme was interesting to me, and right on topic again. I learned a new word too, thanks.
It is regrettable that you became angered by other responses to your post.
You have many sincere followers and much respect John.
I’m glad you so quickly recovered from your hissy-fit
JW
Hi John, yes I recovered quickly and reminded myswelf of a useful lesson to be kept in mind at all times - neve react in anger, take a chill pill, then respond if you want to.
DeleteJC
Hi John,
DeleteIt is good that you let the anger go so quickly.
Curiously the subject of holding on to anger came up in a conversation with a friend this week. He reminded me of some good advice given by Gautama Buddha.
“Holding on to anger is like drinking poison and expecting the other person to die”
JW
Thanks Trevor, I agree with the logos not being of any value. You mentioned verbal clues spoke by the man himself that were of no value. I just wonder if I may see something in these clues that you don't. Thanks again, Justsomeone
ReplyDeleteAll of Besslers verbal clues are relevant because he always told the truth.
DeleteI am saying that there are certain clues that are very revealing and can guide you in the right direction.
None of us, and I mean none of us would be where we are today without the efforts of John.
ReplyDeleteChris, you are obnoxius and disrespectful. I suggest you go away.
Am I alone in hoping that Chris Wilson keeps to his promise this time of not posting on this blog anymore? His abusive tone to virtually everybody is just not acceptable, so how will he ever "command respect"?
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DeleteYou have nothing to defend. That's the point.
DeleteI've just completed an extensive modeling session with my current "right track" design and, so far, things are looking VERY good. My 6:00 going to 7:30 position weighted lever arrives at 7:30 in a precise vertical orientation as it should. The four weighted levers whose pivots travel from the 10:30 to 4:30 positions all smoothly rotate CW about their pivots so that their weights begin moving closer to their respective rim stops soon after a 45 degree increment of drum rotation starts. Most importantly, my 9:00 going to 10:30 weighted lever, because of the secondary spring finally correctly attached to it with the proper k value AND its interconnecting cord to the lagging 7:30 going to 9:00 position weighted lever, remains perfectly WEIGHTLESS throughout the entire 45 degree interval of drum rotation.
ReplyDeleteI am, therefore, rapidly approaching a "moment of truth" test of this design. My testing so far shows that all of the GROUPS of weighted levers are working perfectly BY THEMSELVES when mechanically isolated from each other. The question to be answered by that "M of T" test is whether or not they will ALL work perfectly TOGETHER when some extra interconnecting cords are added to properly connect them with each other. IF so, then I will finally be able to legitimately declare the Bessler wheel mystery solved! IF not, then, as happened earlier this month, it's time to do a careful post mortem of the failed attempt and check all of the DT portrait clues it is based upon to see if I've MISinterpreted any of them (which is always a risk). This matter should be resolved in another day or so.
While inspecting my design, I noticed something quite interesting. If one draws a straight line from the 9:30 position weighted lever's pivot to the 10:30 position weighted lever's pivot and then draws another line from that pivot out to its lever's weight, one actually sketches what looks like a large number "7". In numerology, which Bessler was an expert in, this number is considered to be particulary lucky (indeed, it is still considered lucky and a winning number in the casino game of "craps" and on slot machines). I'm hoping that my sudden noticing of it in my wheel means that I, too, am about to become VERY lucky!
Now why I found this number in my design interesting is because there are also several number "7's" in the two DT portraits! BUT, there is a VERY prominent one in the FIRST DT portrait which I will leave to my fellow mobilists to find (and, NO, you will NOT be suffering from "apophenia" IF you find it!). Indeed, finding it might just indicate that you are BEGINNING to become ready to put on those eyeglasses Bessler offers in the 2nd portrait so that you will be able to eventually see THE design he found and used in his wheels a bit more clearly!
TG, maybe all the DT portrait clues that you see, but I (and most others) don't, could be more kindly described as "wishful thinking".
ReplyDeleteBut in any case, why do you insist on such accuracy for the spring constant values that you say you see? A couple of blogs ago you mentioned "exactly 16lb/in" "1.00000lb/in" etc. Even if you see the number 16 somehow, you must know that the pound and the inch used in Germany in Bessler's time did not have the same values as the ones we use. Wikipedia says that the 18th century Cassel, Hessen foot was 287mm, only about 94% of our current foot of 304.8mm.
PART I:
ReplyDeleteFirst, a quick correction to my previous comment. I had said in the second sentence of the third paragraph: "If one draws a straight line from the 9:30 position weighted lever's pivot to the 10:30 position weighted lever's pivot..."
That should have been: "If one draws a straight line from the 9:00 position weighted lever's pivot to the 10:30 position weighted lever's pivot...". Sorry about that.
@ Arktos
You should keep in mind that when I look at the two DT portraits, I am ALSO able to simultaneously look at a "right track" wheel design which I have that is, at this point, 99.9% completed. So, I am seeing the symbols in the potraits VERY differently from someone who does NOT have this advantage. In effect, I am viewing the portraits, metaphorically, through those eyeglasses Bessler offers in the 2nd portrait while you and others, who are still "blind" compared to me, are not. IF you finally reach my level of analysis of the portraits, then I am confident that you WILL agree with the interpretations that I have made, especially if I've posted THE design that Bessler found and used before then.
I use 5 decimal place accuracy on my 4:1 scale models because WM2D readily gives me that option and I have found that the extra precision prevents round off errors that can lead to slight variations in the angles of the design's weighted levers and, consequently, errors in the location of the CoM of its eight 1 ounce weights. I, of course, do not think that Bessler was able to achieve such precision and, ultimately, it is not really that important to the construction of a wheel (so long as the degree of imprecision is not too great!). But, I want to give precision far greater than Bessler used for the craftsmen out there to know what values they should be "aiming for" as they go about trying to duplicate Bessler's wheels based on any design I provide.
Yes, I am well aware of the variations between the English units and those that Bessler used. However, I also eventually realized that this is actually IRRELEVANT as far as producing a working design is concerned!
PART II:
ReplyDeleteFor example, when I say that the levers inside of the Merseburg wheel were 14 "inches" long and their pivots were located exactly 56 "inches" from the center of the axle, it makes NO DIFFERENCE, as far as the function of design is concerned whether I am talking about English, Cassel, or Hessen inches. This is because the RATIO of the pivot distance divided by the lever length remains 56 "in" /14 "in" = 4 REGARDLESS of the units used. So, whenever I give a distance and say it is in "feet" or "inches", you can attach whatever units to it that you prefer; that is, you can consider the distance to be in EITHER English, Cassel, or Hessen feet or inches. Since ALL of the mechanics of Bessler's wheels involve formulas with ratios in them, it is also irrelevant what units of mass one uses be they English, Cassel, or Hessen ounces or pounds. The important thing is to remain CONSISTENT with ALL of the units that you do use within a particular wheel's design. Like the ratios, all of the various NUMERICAL values that I derive from the portrait clues also remain CONSTANT regardless of the units attached to them. Thus, if I see a clue that I interpret as saying that the primary springs Bessler used on the Merseburg wheel's weighted levers had a spring constant or k value of 16 "lbs" per "inch", the 16 part does NOT change depending upon whose lbs and inches are used.
The craftsmen who eventually try to duplicate Bessler's wheels with my design will, for the most part, be using English units in their measurements and, as you noted, in that case their final products' diameters and thicknesses will be about 100% / 94% = 1.06383 times larger than what Bessler produced. This is a discrepancy of only about +6.4 % and will NOT affect the wheel's function in any way. Those obsessed with exact historical accuracy are free to use the same units that they think Bessler used if that makes them happy. I'd hate to see such a person spend months to complete a wheel using the units he THOUGHT Bessler used, only to find out later that Bessler used some OTHER units! But, at least he would still have a working wheel.